Haley Barbour Clears The Way For A Christie Run In 2012

Haley Barbour has announced that he will not seek the Presidency in 2012.

As head of the Republican Governors Association, Barbour was a staunch supporter of Chris Christie's gubernatorial run. And since Christie is essentially a fundraiser at heart, he knows not to bite the hand that feeds him. So since the RGA pumped millions of dollars into Christie's campaign, Christie raised millions for Republican gubernatorial candidates in 2010.

As long as Haley Barbour was a potential Presidential candidate, Christie could not run. Christie simply will not run against anyone who supported him to the extent Barbour did -- it would violate the Christie brand of rewarding his benefactors and punishing his foes.

But it's an entirely new situation now, opening the possibility that Barbour himself, through the RGA, would launch a draft Christie campaign. Why would Barbour do that? His term as Governor of Mississippi is up in 2012, and he is term barred from running again. Which means Barbour will be looking for a job in 2012. Helping Christie take the White House would mean a plum position in Washington for Barbour.

Time will tell.

Will Barbour's Flub Be Christie's Gain?

In a previous post I posited that Chris Christie would not run for president in 2012 because Haley Barbour was running. As head of the Republican Governor's Association, Barbour spent $7 million on Christie's gubernatorial campaign, Barbour has proven to be a staunch Christie supporter, creating a 20 minute RGA infomercial on Christie's election. And since Christie is primarily a fundraiser, he will never bite any hand that feeds him; thus, he is not about to challenge Barbour for the Republican nomination.

But it seems Mr. Barbour has made some racially insensitive comments, saying (among other things) that he didn't remember segregation as being so bad. It may be that Barbour's best contribution to the 2012 campaign would be as fundraiser.

So, should Barbour concede that he is not ready for prime time, would he support a Christie run?

The 2012 Election Begins

The Republican Presidential primary has begun. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are at the head of the pack. Republican Governors Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty are also frequently mentioned.

And then there's Haley Barbour. In truth, Barbour's candidacy is at least one major factor influencing Chris Christie's decision not to run. As head of the Republican Governors Association, Haley Barbour funneled about $7 million into Christie's gubernatorial campaign. Since Christie has a policy of rewarding those who help him, he raised over $8 million for the RGA and will not run against Barbour.

As Republican governors, Haley and Christie have a lot in common. Both have been lobbyists and fundraisers. Under cover of the economic downturn both slashed state spending while remaining popular with voters. Both men criticize the Federal government's excessive spending while accepting Federal stimulus dollars.

And as candidates, both men promised not to raise taxes. Barbour, however, broke that pledge. He reinstated a hospital tax used to fund Medicaid and increased cigarette taxes.

So it would seem that the reception Barbour gets on the campaign trail will inform Chris Christie's decisions as governor. If Barbour is pilloried by conservatives in the primary race for raising taxes, then certainly Christie will stand firm on his pledge. But if Barbour gets a pass on his tax increases, it creates a window of opportunity here in New Jersey.

Let the games begin.

The Shadow Republican National Convention: The Republican Governors Association

According to the good folks at Inside Washington and Politico, Haley Barbour is the most powerful Republican in the country right now. That's because, as the head of the Republican Governors Association, Barbour has $40 million to spend on 2010 elections.

It's no secret that Michael Steele is having troubles at the Republican National Convention. Steele has recently taken remarkably progressive positions on gay marriage and abortion. Steele has also been charging speaking fees, which is highly unusual for someone his position; and he recently released a book without coordinating that release with Congressional Republicans. At least partially as a result, Steele and the RNC have been having trouble raising money.

Enter Haley Barbour, Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chairman. A Southern conservative and a friend of big oil, and an outspoken critic of Michael Steele, Barbour has been raising money hand over fist. And the message he's using to raise money? The Republican comeback started in Virginia and New Jersey.

In fact, just last week the RGA announced that it will be releasing a 20+ minute documentary about Chris Christie's successful gubernatorial campaign and his first 8 months in office.

So, in effect,we are seeing a schism in the Republican party at the national level. On the one hand, Michael Steele is trying to broaden the appeal of the party by moving away from the social conservative base and attracting independents and moderates. On the other hand, Haley Barbour is pulling the party's traditional, socially conservative Southern base around him.

And Barbour is using Chris Christie as bait.

Make no mistake -- to paraphrase the RGA, the battle starts here in New Jersey with Chris Christie.